Wednesday, December 10, 2008

Bubble burst

Once there was a little island country. The land of this country was the tiny island itself. The total money in circulation was 2 dollars as there were only

two pieces of 1 dollar coins circulating around.



1) There were 3 citizens living on this island country. A owned the land. B and C each owned 1 dollar.



2) B decided to purchase the land from A for 1 dollar. So, now A and C own 1 dollar each while B owned a piece of land that is worth 1 dollar.



* The net asset of the country now = 3 dollars.



3) Now C thought that since there is only one piece of land in the country, and land is non producible asset, its value must definitely go up. So, he borrowed 1

dollar from A, and together with his own 1 dollar, he bought the land from B for 2 dollars.



*A has a loan to C of 1 dollar, so his net asset is 1 dollar.

* B sold his land and got 2 dollars, so his net asset is 2 dollars.

* C owned the piece of land worth 2 dollars but with his 1 dollar debt to A, his net residual asset is 1 dollar.

* Thus, the net asset of the country = 4 dollars.



4) A saw that the land he once owned has risen in value. He regretted having sold it. Luckily, he has a 1 dollar loan to C. He then borrowed 2 dollars from B

and acquired the land back from C for 3 dollars. The payment is by 2 dollars cash (which he borrowed) and cancellation of the 1 dollar loan to C. As a

result, A now owned a piece of land that is worth 3 dollars.

But since he owed B 2 dollars, his net asset is 1 dollar.



* B loaned 2 dollars to A. So his net asset is 2 dollars.

* C now has the 2 coins. His net asset is also 2 dollars.

* The net asset of the country = 5 dollars. A bubble is building up.



(5) B saw that the value of land kept rising. He also wanted to own the land. So he bought the land from A for 4 dollars. The payment is by borrowing 2

dollars from C, and cancellation of his 2 dollars loan to A.

* As a result, A has got his debt cleared and he got the 2 coins. His net asset is 2 dollars.

* B owned a piece of land that is worth 4 dollars, but since he has a debt of 2 dollars with C, his net Asset is 2 dollars. * C loaned 2 dollars to B, so his net asset is 2 dollars.



* The net asset of the country = 6 dollars; even though, the country has only one piece of land and 2 Dollars in circulation. .



(6) Everybody has made money and everybody felt happy and prosperous.



(7) One day an evil wind blew, and an evil thought came to C's mind. "Hey, what if the land price stop going up, how could B repay my loan.

There is only 2 dollars in circulation, and, I think after all the land that B owns is worth at most only 1 dollar, and no more."



(8) A also thought the same way.



(9) Nobody wanted to buy land anymore.



* So, in the end, A owns the 2 dollar coins, his net asset is 2 dollars.

* B owed C 2 dollars and the land he owned which he thought worth 4 dollars is

now 1 dollar. So his net asset is only 1 dollar.

* C has a loan of 2 dollars to B. But it is a bad debt. Although his net asset is still 2 dollars, his Heart is palpitating.

* The net asset of the country = 3 dollars again.



(10) So, who has stolen the 3 dollars from the country? Of course, before the bubble burst B thought his land was worth 4 dollars.

Actually, right before the collapse, the net asset of the country was 6 dollars on paper. B's net asset is still 2 dollars, his heart is palpitating.



(11) B had no choice but to declare bankruptcy. C as to relinquish his 2 dollars bad debt to B, but in return he acquired the land which is worth 1

dollar now.



* A owns the 2 coins; his net asset is 2 dollars.

* B is bankrupt; his net asset is 0 dollar. (He lost everything)

* C got no choice but end up with a land worth only 1 dollar



* the net asset of the country = 3 dollars.



************ **End of the story; BUT ************ ********* ******



There is however a redistribution of wealth.

A is the winner, B is the loser, C is lucky that he is spared.

A few points worth noting -



(1) when a bubble is building up, the debt of individuals to one another in a country is also building up.

(2) This story of the island is a closed system whereby there is no other country and hence no foreign debt. The worth of the asset can only be calculated

using the island's own currency. Hence, there is no net loss.

(3) An over-damped system is assumed when the bubble burst, meaning the land's value did not go down to below 1 dollar.

(4) When the bubble burst, the fellow with cash is the winner. The fellows having the land or extending loan to others are the losers. The asset could

shrink or in worst case, they go bankrupt.

(5) If there is another citizen D either holding a dollar or another piece of land but refrains from taking part in the game, he will neither win nor lose.

But he will see the value of his money or land goes up and down like a see saw.

(6) When the bubble was in the growing phase, everybody made money.

(7) If you are smart and know that you are living in a growing bubble, it is

worthwhile to borrow money (like A) and take part in the game. But you must know when you should change everything back to cash.

(8) As in the case of land, the above phenomenon applies to stocks as well.

(9) The actual worth of land or stocks depends largely on psychology (or speculation)

Wednesday, December 3, 2008

Violent India

Well thanks to all the violence happening around country, I decided to write something here. Some random thoughts coming in to my mind finding way here.

So its about end of year. Still few days to go and I dont want list to grow any more. We witnessed violence all over. In Maharashtra over Bihari issue. In Bengal over Nano issue. In Assam, Delhi and other parts over terrorism. And just when we thought worst is over, Mumbai attacks happened. Sad sad year for Indians. I am not going to talk about terrorists, Pakistan, Raj T, Mamta Banergy and others who might have invoked this violence on innocent people. I want to talk about you and me. Victims, observers. People who want to do something but either just rant about it.

In school we were taught the national pledge. We used to take everyday. I know it still in Marathi. How many of you know it? Doubt even 1% know it once they graduate from school.

There are few things in the pledge.

1. India is my country -
India is "my" country. When something is mine, I have the responsibility to make it better. I dont know how many of us really understand this. Even I am not sure how to make it better. All I know is if I work hard some how it is going to help my country. If I dont do anything thats against law, against general moral/ethics, I will be helping my country. Even jumping a red light is not helping my country. Do I need to do any thing more to help the country. I can. But even if I am the most selfish person to walk (or blog :-) ), I feel if I can do what is bare minimum required of me, then thats enough.

2. All Indians are my brothers and sisters -
Now this is reciprocal relationship. For me to consider some one as my brother or sister, said person need to reciprocate the feeling, right? Sadly this is not happening in India. Bihari's want Bihari's railway. Marwari's wants marwari's as assitants. Marathi's want marathis in jobs. Is this how its supposed to be? I am fine with financial corruption. I really dont care. For me it even keeps the money flowing in the country to some extent. But moral/ethics corruption is far more dangerous. As most often or not, people will fight against each other when things go out of hand. Moral, ethical corruption always lead to bloodshed. This has been proved for years. Mahabharata did not happen because of land. It happened because there was deep moral corruption. It was not about greed of a man or group of men. It was about society which was getting corrupted. Sadly there is no Lord Shri Krishna on the scene now to help us out, or is there one?

3. I am proud of its rich and varied heritage
This is still so true. Only thing is now these cultures are fighting against each other. Raj T incident has had so deep reaching impact on my mind that its unbelievable. After Mumbai attack we mind less group of people start forwarding SMSes, where was Raj T and his good squad when mumbai burnt? Where were Marathi NSG commandos. All NSGs were from delhi and punjab. And what not. I read these SMSes just as I walked past hoarding saluting people like Karkare, Chitte, Dhobale. I havent cried in last 10 years but that day I did. We have become such mindless group as a country. We just need one reason to pelt stone at each other. I don't care what Raj T thinks and does. I hardly support in extremists. But when you forward SMSes like this you are becoming one of the extremists. Dont you think? You call politicians Thugs, Gundas, Opportunists. Didnt you also proved you are opportunists?

4.To my country and my people, I pledge my devotion.
To my country and my people I pledge my devotion. Hardly we do this. Muslims, biharis, bengalis, gujrathis, marathis, South Indians, north Indians. All are fighting against each other. Over land, jobs, women, water. Day by day we are going closer to separatism. As a large community with varied cultures, languages we are going further are further away from each other. It feels like Communal riots of 47 were like big bang which put in place the momentum to take us away from each other.

5. In their well being and prosperity alone, lies my happiness.
What can I even say about this. All we are worried about is me, myself and I. I will bash some one as everyone is doing that. So it makes me look good. We dont care to even think beyond news paper headlines as to what is going on. No one cared enough to go to Singur and talk to villagers there. But we were all bashing Mamta in the dirtiest language possible. No one tried to find out truth behind Raj T and anti Bihari acts of his. No one tried to see whats happening in Gujrath, who killed those Hindus but all were burning down Muslim houses. We are so angry, so worked up. Some people show it through physical violence some show it through online violence. Fuck, asshole have been cult words. I even read an article about how people should shove up the candles they were lighting in the memory of dead in Mumbai attacks, up their ass. I really dont know what kind of Sanskar this guy had when he was growing up.

What we need to do as a nation? Are there any straight answers? Something tangible
we can do?

All I decided to do was -

1. I will never hate anyone. Be it Raj T or be it Mamta Banergy. Be it muslim, chirstian, bihari, marwari, marathi.
2. I will be responsible about what I say and what I do. That much I owe to my country.
3. I will make sure I one statement does not create hatred in my friend who might be from some other culture.
4. I will make sure I create atmosphere on unity around myself. If everyone tries doing that, I am sure we can achieve unity all around.
5. I will not say anything out of emotion, out of hatred, out of rage, out of ignorance.
6. I will not tolerate violence on street. If some one is beating some one with out reason. I will try to stop violence. No longer will I be a mute observer.
7. I will work hard. I will work harder every day till I die. I will contribute in every way Lord Shri Krishna has enabled me to help my country and my country-people.
8. I will spread love. Love for even those that you think should be despised. That is what Mahatma taught us and that is what is the only way for better humanity.
9. Most importantly I will not be divided. I will treat everyone marathi, bihari, marwari, punjabi, male, female everyone the same.

I remember once my mentor told me that there wont be world war now in nations. Villages, towns will fight against each other. I know he meant it when he said that. I just wish it does not happen. I wish we grow up. I wish there comes some one like Gandhi/Tilak/Savarkar/Patel who can again lead us. Who can again channelize our energies.

Love,
Sushrut

Monday, July 21, 2008

Answers


[Part One]
I know. Yes, I have known all this 12 years ago. I knew when you first tried to seek to me. I knew then only that you are seeking answers to all these questions. You came to me for finding those answers only, haven't you? But yes, you knew you have to wait. And you did, for these 12 long years. You tried to find the answers yourself. And you did find them. Now you are here to just verify the answers, isn't it?
So now you ask me who chooses? Don't you know the answer? By asking this question you in fact have answered this. Yes, you are right. You have to choose yourself. Always. I never had that power. In fact you have to lead me. You are the master and I am just a friend, a guide who can only follow your lead. You have to realize this. Unless you believe you are the chosen one, I am helpless. You have to make the choice. But why do you think its so difficult to acknowledge this? Because its very hard to accept the fact that you are being loved unconditionally. No matter what you do, I will always love you. Its the most scary thing to acknowledge someone is there who loves you, trusts you, believes in you so blindly. I know exactly what you are thinking. I know you have come face to face with this feeling once, and you had run away from it. Wasn't there a friend who said he can trust you blindly. A friend who said he knows you will always be there for him? And what did you do, you run away from him. You chose to cut him out of your life! But I know you are friends again. I know you just needed a little more time to comprehend, to accept that you will try not to ever let that friend down. You tried to see me in such decisions. That was the first time I think you understood what it is to be loved by me. That was the time when you decided to stop seeking me for a year. You decided you want to live without actually looking for me. With out trying to pursue answers to these questions. And you did so for that one year. But we came closer, much closer than ever in that one year. Again it was your choice and your decision. I just followed your lead. We came closer because you stopped trying to bring yourself closer to me. You understood that you have to bring me closer to you. You have keep me close to you all the time and that how all these questions will be answered.
Now you ask me why? Well I really don't think you can find the answer for that. Why somebody should feel, should realize he is meant for bigger, better purpose in life. Why somebody should think he is loved more by me than rest of the mortals? Well there is no answer to this question. But try to ask why not? Why not he should be the special one, he should be given responsibility to shepherd the weaker? Haven't I given each and everyone of you all the powers necessary to lead? The three divine powers of “Prajanan”, “Srujan”, “Nirdalan” . Brahma, Vishnu and Mahesh symbolizes these eternal powers only. And each and everyone has them. So why you cant lead? What more do you want to take that responsibility. Why you fear failure. Why you feel are just not good enough, important enough for that. This self realization has to occur. You have to ask yourself why not you?
Why do think Arjun, Radha, Draupadi, Hanuman became so special? Is it because they all loved me with out reasoning? Without ever questioning my powers, my existence. Answer is no! They all achieved greatness, because they all believed that I love them too. That I love them more than anyone else. Just remember, you are only as much part of me, as I am yours. If your heart and soul are mine then my heart and soul are yours too. What did Arjun see when I showed him the “PurnRup”. Did he see me in some gigantic form controlling all the living creatures? No! He saw himself. Because he is the one who realized he is nothing but me and I am nothing but him. He was the only one understood he's been loved truly and completely by me. And thats why he is so special, thats why he was the chosen one.